Not just global warming OR drought

Not just global warming OR drought

By Patrick Douglas

Many people are aware of either global warming, or, if living in the southwest United States, the ongoing worst drought ever. However, most people are surprisingly unaware of the conflation of the two and the severity of the implications of both drought and warming while occurring together. In two articles, “A new view on sea level rise” by Stefan Rahmstorf published in Nature, and, “Dry Times Ahead” by Jonathan Overpeck and Bradley Udall published in Science Magazine by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

In this study, the IPCC is trying to determine the future sea level rise by measuring the melting of glaciers all over the northern and arctic areas of the world.  “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected a global sea level rise of 18 to 59 centimetres from 1990 to the 2090s.” (Rahmstorf, 44) However, in this IPCC study AR4, their “range assumes a near-zero net contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to future sea level rise.” (Rahmstorf, 44) In reality, many recent studies have shown not only a much larger increase in sea level rise, but also a decrease in continental ice sheet mass and amount of glaciers. The IPCC AR4 study indicates a max sea level rise in centimeters in the twenty first century at about sixty centimeters, whereas the range of max rises for a number of other recent studies show anywhere from one hundred to over two hundred centimeters. (Figure 1, Rahmstorf, 45) The difference between the IPCC’s study and other recent studies show the IPCC’s increases are static, where most other studies show an exponential increase in sea level rise due to many negative factors increasing all at the same time. The IPCC is severely underestimating the future sea level rise because it is only taking one variable, glaciers, into consideration, whereas there are many other variables, some not related to climate change and the abundance of water, but to the absence of it.

The relation of too much or not enough water associated with warming temperatures is more profoundly linked than one may assume. In this study of the Colorado River flow and its reservoirs, it can be shown that global warming and drought certainly are linked. “In the past decade, many locations, notably in the headwaters region of the Colorado River, have been more than 1°C warmer than the 20^th century average. This warming has been the primary driver in reducing late-season snowpack and the annual flow of the Colorado River. These reductions, coupled with the most severe drought observed since 1900, have caused the biggest regional water reservoirs—Lake Powell and Lake Mead—to decline from nearly full in 1999 to about 50% full in 2004.” (Overpeck, Udall, 1642) I have personally seen the area of white rock between the sun-bleached mountains and lake water level grow larger and larger over the past 12 years as well as the reduction in late season snow pack as I was recently able to summit Mt. San Gorgonio where in years past, would be impossible due to the amount of snow still present in early spring. The reductions in these reservoirs have immense effects on all the major cities of the west, which rely on these reservoirs for water. As we can see, no longer is global warming simply an issue concerning sea level rise, but also concerning extreme drought and increasing scarcity of water we need to live.